The Pandemic Population Picture Comes Into Focus

The U.S. Census Bureau on May 26 released a new batch of population estimates for cities and towns covering the fiscal year stretching from July 2020 to June 2021.

The headline narrative to emerge from the story is the concentration of growth in the Sun Belt—namely suburban cities in Florida, Texas, and Arizona—during the initial months of the pandemic. Add Idaho to the list, and a picture emerges of immigration to suburban cities in large metropolitan areas—the “urban exodus” so many talked about during the pandemic.

Census data analysis by the Pew Research Center in December 2021 found fewer Americans moving in general during 2020, which means this latest round of population estimates can be taken, to a degree, with a grain of salt—i.e., while some suburban cities in relatively newly expanding metropolitan areas are growing quickly, Americans in general are moving less than they have in the past.

Despite that caveat, the trend throughout the pandemic was clear: Suburban parts of Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Idaho grew the fastest, large Sunbelt cities in Texas and Arizona gained the most population, and the largest, most recognizable U.S. cities lost population. Count Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and New York City among that last group.

The mainstream media rushed to publicize the latest Census data, some focused on the quick growth in their local markets and others pointing out the decline of the nation’s most urban cities. The pandemic and its effects on the country's cities and migration patterns are clear subtext for much of the coverage. A roundup of the local and national news on the new population estimates follow [Hat tip to D'Vera Cohn (@allthingscensus) for sharing most of the news we’ve gathered here].

Population Growth

• These 5 Arizona cities are among the fastest growing in the U.S. Here's what to know (Arizona Central)
• Three Idaho cities among 15 fastest-growing in the U.S. (KTVB)
• Numerous DFW cities land on US Census list of largest population increases in nation (WFAA)
• 2 Austin suburbs are the fastest-growing cities in the U.S., says Census Bureau (Culture Map Austin)
• Three Florida cities among nation's fastest-growing: Fort Myers, North Port and Port St. Lucie (Tallahassee Democrat)
• U.S. Census Data: Fort Worth Population Boom Rolls On (FW)
• Tennessee’s Spring Hill Cracks Top 10 List of Nation’s Fastest Growing Cities in 2021 (Tennessee State Data Center)
• More people are moving to San Antonio than anywhere else in the country — including Austin (San Antonio Express-News)

Population Decline

• San Francisco post-pandemic population drop steepest among major U.S. cities (CBS Bay Area)
• Big cities saw population declines during pandemic (Axios)
• City population declines related to pandemic: Census Bureau (Fox Business)
• Minneapolis, St. Paul See Population Dips Amid Pandemic, US Census Data Shows (WCCO)
• US Census Bureau: Big City losses early in COVID pandemic [paywall] (StarTribune)
• Seattle’s population dropped, but another King County city saw fastest growth in WA (The Seattle Times)
• Biggest US cities lost population during pandemic, Sunbelt saw gains, census data shows (Fox 6 Milwaukee)
• In pandemic’s first year, large cities shrank as South, West saw gains (The Washington Post)
• Big U.S. Cities Lost More Residents as Covid-19 Pandemic Stretched On [paywall] (Wall Street Journal)
• 79% of Illinois Communities Lose People in 2021; Chicago Loses 45K (Illinois Policy)
• Manhattan Lost 6.9% of Its Population in 2021, the Most of Any Major U.S. County (NBC New York)
• Big population drops in Los Angeles, San Francisco transforming urban California (Los Angeles Times)