A common refrain heard by locals opposed to new housing developments is that area schools can’t absorb the increase in students they’ll bring. As the nation approaches an “enrollment cliff,” the data tells a different story.
A new Shelterforce article reveals that concerns about school overcrowding - a common argument against affordable housing development - contradict actual enrollment data showing widespread declines across U.S. school districts.
In many cases, proposed affordable housing projects faced opposition due to school capacity concerns, including Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where voters rejected a major affordable housing development partially due to school overcrowding fears. However, nationwide data shows K-12 enrollment is projected to drop by 8% between 2019 and 2030, with many districts already experiencing significant declines.
In California's Coachella Valley, where an ambitious 10,000-unit affordable housing initiative is underway, local school districts report continued enrollment decreases rather than overcrowding. One district has lost over 2,000 students since 2018, while another operates at just 75% capacity.
- The enrollment decline stems from multiple factors, including:
- Falling birth rates since the 2008 recession
- Broad demographic shifts
- COVID-19 impacts on public school enrollment
School administrators note that declining enrollment threatens school funding and stability, with many districts actively seeking more students. As Adam Bosch of Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress states in the article, "We should be on our knees praying for a hailstorm of children to fall from the sky."
FULL STORY: Fact Check: New Housing Doesn’t Lead to Overcrowded Schools
Expanding the Mission: Community Groups Serving Schools
Some community development organizations have added education to their traditional focus on housing and economic development, looking for ways to support families and children by partnering with local school districts. How is it working?
What Is ‘Affordable Housing’?
For such a commonly used term, “affordable housing” means a lot of different things to different people and in different contexts.For such a commonly used term, “affordable housing” means a lot of different things to different people and in different contexts.
To Build More Housing, Cities Must Be Smarter in How They Use Land
How strategic land use policy decisions can alleviate the housing crisis and limit unsustainable sprawl.
National Parks Layoffs Will Cause Communities to Lose Billions
Thousands of essential park workers were laid off this week, just before the busy spring break season.
Retro-silient?: America’s First “Eco-burb,” The Woodlands Turns 50
A master-planned community north of Houston offers lessons on green infrastructure and resilient design, but falls short of its founder’s lofty affordability and walkability goals.
Delivering for America Plan Will Downgrade Mail Service in at Least 49.5 Percent of Zip Codes
Republican and Democrat lawmakers criticize the plan for its disproportionate negative impact on rural communities.
Test News Post 1
This is a summary
Test News Headline 46
Test for the image on the front page.
Balancing Bombs and Butterflies: How the National Guard Protects a Rare Species
The National Guard at Fort Indiantown Gap uses GIS technology and land management strategies to balance military training with conservation efforts, ensuring the survival of the rare eastern regal fritillary butterfly.
Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
This six-course series explores essential urban design concepts using open source software and equips planners with the tools they need to participate fully in the urban design process.
Planning for Universal Design
Learn the tools for implementing Universal Design in planning regulations.
EMC Planning Group, Inc.
Planetizen
Planetizen
Mpact (formerly Rail~Volution)
Great Falls Development Authority, Inc.
HUDs Office of Policy Development and Research
NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service