Will The Sunbelt Dry Up?

Drought and shrinking water supplies could pose serious limits to growth in the American southwest and southeast.

2 minute read

June 26, 2007, 5:00 AM PDT

By Michael Dudley


"More than anything else, lack of water could define the limits to America's future growth. If global warming, manmade or otherwise, is contributing to a drying out of both the Southeast and the Southwest, then that's trouble, because those regions are where people are headed: older people, in search of cheap land and dry heat, and younger people chasing jobs in high-tech industries that are shifting south, attracted by lower taxes and laissez-faire state governments.

Arizona is the fastest-growing state in the union. Its population increased by 3.6 per cent last year. Nevada is No. 2: Its population grew by 3.5 per cent. Both are mostly desert.

Tuscon and Phoenix - with populations of a million and four million, respectively - are sprawling toward each other, and are expected to merge in the next decade. Planners project a Phoenix-Tucson population of 10 million within 30 years. Even without worsening drought, that will exceed the capacity of existing water supplies - and Phoenix has supplemented its groundwater supplies by diverting rivers, such as the Colorado. Further increasing Phoenix's water capacity could mean impoverishing water supplies elsewhere.

The long-term prospects for Southern California are deeply troubling. A recent study by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University warns that global warming, though it will actually increase precipitation overall, will entrench current dry conditions in the American southwest permanently within a couple of decades...Global warming or no, there will be future droughts, and no one expects anything other than continued growth in the southeast and southwest."

Saturday, June 23, 2007 in The Globe & Mail

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Red 1972 Ford Pinto with black racing stripes on display with man sitting in driver's seat.

Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto

The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.

July 2, 2025 - Mother Jones

Close-up of park ranger in green jacket and khaki hat looking out at Bryce Canyon National Park red rock formations.

National Parks Layoffs Will Cause Communities to Lose Billions

Thousands of essential park workers were laid off this week, just before the busy spring break season.

February 18, 2025 - National Parks Traveler

Paved walking path next to canal in The Woodlands, Texas with office buildings in background.

Retro-silient?: America’s First “Eco-burb,” The Woodlands Turns 50

A master-planned community north of Houston offers lessons on green infrastructure and resilient design, but falls short of its founder’s lofty affordability and walkability goals.

February 19, 2025 - Greg Flisram

Screenshot of shade map of Buffalo, New York with legend.

Test News Post 1

This is a summary

0 seconds ago - 2TheAdvocate.com

Red 1972 Ford Pinto with black racing stripes on display with man sitting in driver's seat.

Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto

The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.

18 minutes ago - Mother Jones

test alt text

Test News Headline 46

Test for the image on the front page.

March 5 - Cleantech blog