Demographic modeling is a critical tool in urban planning. But what happens when the model is wrong?
This piece from New Geography looks at the trouble with demographic models and the potential problems that can arise when some pieces of data are wrong.
"The first step in planning for the future is to get a picture of what the terrain is going to look like when you get there. That's mainly what I do for clients, audiences and subscribers, and demographics provide the frame (like assembling all the straight-edge pieces of a jigsaw puzzle first). But here's the thing about projections: a small change at an inflection point, or the inclusion (or exclusion) of salient variables, can result in big changes to the future you are trying to describe. So like all treatments of the future, everything depends on the underlying assumptions, and the salience of the variables chosen for inclusion."
FULL STORY: Demographics May Be Destiny, but Mind the Assumptions
Report: 100 Trends Urban Planners Need to Know About
APA’s third annual Trend Report for Urban Planners is out and offers a comprehensive look at potential drivers of change that could impact communities and the work of planners for decades to come.
Coronavirus Shuts Down Food Processing Plant as President Pushes Reopening Economy
As President Donald Trump eyes May 1 for "opening up states," he might want to look at states that never shut down businesses to understand his public health advisor's warning that "the virus makes the timeline."
What the Future Looked Like Before the Coronavirus
Common Edge surveyed mayors and urban designers for ideas about what the next decade holds in store for cities. There were plenty of challenges in facing the world before the pandemic.
Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto
The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.
National Parks Layoffs Will Cause Communities to Lose Billions
Thousands of essential park workers were laid off this week, just before the busy spring break season.
Retro-silient?: America’s First “Eco-burb,” The Woodlands Turns 50
A master-planned community north of Houston offers lessons on green infrastructure and resilient design, but falls short of its founder’s lofty affordability and walkability goals.
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Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto
The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.
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EMC Planning Group, Inc.
Planetizen
Planetizen
Mpact (formerly Rail~Volution)
Great Falls Development Authority, Inc.
HUDs Office of Policy Development and Research
NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service