How Accurate Are California's HSR Ridership Figures?

When she read over the ridership estimates behind California's HSR plans, Elizabeth Alexis was expecting to have "obscure arguments over the standard deviations," but instead found glaringly obvious "math" mistakes.

1 minute read

July 23, 2010, 5:00 AM PDT

By George Haugh


Martina Castro and Nathanael Johnson examine California's drive to construct the nations first high speed rail line.

The state senate ordered a second independent review led by a team at UC Berkely. It found major errors in the original report of more than plus or minus 50%. Sameer Mandanat reminds us that while "travel demand models are useful but always have to be taken with a grain of salt." The fact that these estimates have been used as accurate figures by politicians and planners has become problematic.

Bent Flyvbjerg a leading academic at Oxford University's BT Centre for Major Programme Management suggests "there needs to be a study of whether the decision is biased. Meaning whether it's optimistic or whether there is strategic misrepresentation."

Wednesday, July 21, 2010 in San Francisco Chronicle

portrait of professional woman

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching. Mary G., Urban Planner

I love the variety of courses, many practical, and all richly illustrated. They have inspired many ideas that I've applied in practice, and in my own teaching.

Mary G., Urban Planner

Get top-rated, practical training

Red 1972 Ford Pinto with black racing stripes on display with man sitting in driver's seat.

Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto

The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.

July 2, 2025 - Mother Jones

Close-up of park ranger in green jacket and khaki hat looking out at Bryce Canyon National Park red rock formations.

National Parks Layoffs Will Cause Communities to Lose Billions

Thousands of essential park workers were laid off this week, just before the busy spring break season.

February 18, 2025 - National Parks Traveler

Paved walking path next to canal in The Woodlands, Texas with office buildings in background.

Retro-silient?: America’s First “Eco-burb,” The Woodlands Turns 50

A master-planned community north of Houston offers lessons on green infrastructure and resilient design, but falls short of its founder’s lofty affordability and walkability goals.

February 19, 2025 - Greg Flisram

Screenshot of shade map of Buffalo, New York with legend.

Test News Post 1

This is a summary

0 seconds ago - 2TheAdvocate.com

Red 1972 Ford Pinto with black racing stripes on display with man sitting in driver's seat.

Analysis: Cybertruck Fatality Rate Far Exceeds That of Ford Pinto

The Tesla Cybertruck was recalled seven times last year.

18 minutes ago - Mother Jones

test alt text

Test News Headline 46

Test for the image on the front page.

March 5 - Cleantech blog