When "peak car use" is reached, the only way to go is down, claim Australian scholars Peter Newman and Jeff Kenworthy. They say we're already there - between 1995 to 2000, per capita VMT in some major cities around the world decreased.
The Infrastructurist reports, "In Europe, London dropped 1.2 percent, Stockholm 3.7, and Vienna 7.6. In the United States, Atlanta fell 10.1 percent and Houston 15.2; even Los Angeles fell 2 percent."
Newman and Kenworthy outline six factors that influence this trend in June 2011 issue of World Transport, Policy & Practice: (1) one-hour threshold that people are willing to spend on the road each day, aka the Marchetti constant; (2) growth of public transit; (3) reversal of sprawl; (4) aging population; (5) rise of urbanism; and (6) cost of petro.
"Peak car use suggests that we are witnessing the end of building cities around cars at least in the developed world," say the duo.
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Urban Design for Planners 1: Software Tools
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Mpact (formerly Rail~Volution)
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